Malta’s COVID-19 reproduction factor has decreased to 1.39 after a decrease in cases of the virus over the past week, statistician Vincent Marmara told The Malta Independent on Sunday in his exclusive weekly video blog.

The reproduction factor of the virus is one of the key figures which countries across the world have been trying to reduce ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The aim for countries has been to reduce the ratio to a level of 1 – which would mean that one person would transmit the virus to one other person.

Malta’s reproduction number had not exceeded 1 since last May, however with the current influx in cases it has consistently remained above 1.

Marmara said that the decisions taken in recent weeks with regard to introducing new restrictions are now bearing fruit. 

The reproduction factor of the virus however remains above 1 – even though there have been decreases in cases and in the percentage of positive cases when compared to the number of tests, Marmara noted.

Indeed, the number of cases found in the past week was 100 less than the previous week – with 274 cases. This is less than the 374 in the week prior, and the 281 in the week before. 

Similarly, the percentage of positive cases has decreased from 2.2% last week to 1.8% this week.  This is less than the 2.1% rate from two weeks ago as well.

Marmara also observed that in the past week, the number of people who have recovered has exceeded the number of new cases.

The reproduction factor in fact has now dropped from 1.56 to 1.39 in the past week, Marmara said.

Because the reproduction factor remains above 1, it remains important for the public to follow the measures in place and maintain social distancing.

In last week, more people recovered than there were cases.

Abroad meanwhile, Spain has been facing similar circumstances to Malta with their cases, while the UK have had a slight increase in cases. France meanwhile has had a strong increase in cases, while Italy – previously the virus’ European epicentre – has seen slight increases.  Germany meanwhile has remained stable in terms of case numbers.

Marmara noted that one can see that people are learning how to live under these particular circumstances. The absolute majority are being responsible in order to learn how to live better in these circumstances.

If this was not the case, there would not have been this decrease in cases.

Source: Malta Independent