Malta will, in the coming weeks continue to experience cycles where Covid-19 cases increase and decrease, according to statistician Vince Marmara.

Speaking in his weekly video blog for The Malta Independent on Sunday, Marmara said the fluctuations reflect changing restrictions, conditions and circumstances.

The last week saw the highest number of deaths on a week by week basis, but the number of active cases found daily seems to be decreasing, for the time being.

If one looks at the data on a week by week basis, case numbers are on the decline, he said, adding that many of the cases found last week were related to a particular cluster.

The percentage of new cases compared to the number of tests carried out has gone down from 2.6% last week to 1.8% this week, he added.

Currently, the r-factor is 1.12.

Marmara also looked at what is happening in other countries. The UK is currently experiencing a steady increase in new cases. In Italy and Germany, the numbers for the past week were similar to the week before.

Spain had been experiencing a decline in new cases, but the numbers are increasing significantly again.

“When looking at the situation locally, we are experiencing a number of cycles. There were weeks where the numbers were going down and others when they went up. This is something we will keep experiencing, because of a number of factors, conditions and circumstances.”

These cycles, Marmara explained, were linked to different factors, like tourism, mass events, workplaces and care homes.

“There will be more like this, including with the reopening of schools and the influenza season. One needs to be careful how to calculate the r-factor, also because of changing restrictions and circumstances,” he said.

“At the end of the day the aim is to keep the infection rate low. We have a responsibility to keep transmission low to safeguard our own health and that of our loved ones and the community in general.”

Source: Malta Independent